After another poor outing, Baker has dropped to 1-5 on the year. He hasn’t been anything close to the same pitcher as he was last year as his ERA is around 7 and he’s giving up home runs left and right. The Twins (and my fantasy team) need him to turn it around and do it quickly. But is it likely to happen?
Baker has always been a flyball pitcher and thus prone to being hurt by the long ball but he is giving up a surprising amount of them. His HR/9 has more than doubled from last year to a 2.33 in 2009, which is also his 3rd straight increase. His 59% left on base % (LOB%) is well under the generally accepted 70% range which is mainly due to his HR rate. His HR/FB% is close to double the league average of 10% (18%). With any runners on, he’s given up 7 out of his 10 HR and every single HRA has been to right handed batters. 70% of his HR have been when he’s ahead in the count and lastly regarding home runs 80% have been off his Four Seam Fastball according to the MLB pitch Fx system.
It’s not just the HRA though. 2009 is the 4th consecutive year his BB/9 has been increasing but his strikeouts are only staying the same resulting is a K/BB ratio that has decreased in each of the last 4 years.
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SP
Scott Baker, SP
Justin is having a lot of problems lately with his control as he has walked 9 in his last 9 innings roughly during spring training. By now hopefully everyone knows that when a pitcher starts to significantly lose his control, it could mean that there is an injury that is being hidden from either the medical staff or the public or both.
Verlander is obviously a key component for the Detroit Tigers so I looked at his game log, courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Even though I cherry picked the dates a little bit, after July 26th he had a 6.72 ERA while having only less than a 2:1 K/BB ratio which is well below his performance in previous years. His control suffered greatly as he ended last year with a 3.90 BB/9 which was his 3rd straight year which it increased. So, let’s take a look at PFx to see if non-traditional metrics show something.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP
Justin Verlander, PFx, SP
Ervin Santana’s elbow is merely being reported as stiffness but several of the local newspapers and beat writers are reporting he has a mild tear of the UCL of the elbow. Yes this is the same ligament that is replaced in the Tommy John procedure.
Currently, he is scheduled to miss at least a month while trying to rehab according to the Angels and other news outlets. No matter what whenever I hear that a pitcher has a partially torn or sprained UCL I avoid him at all costs. The UCL does not completely heal on it own ever. Without surgery, the area is only stabilized by two methods. First, the elbow can be strengthened up to the point where the muscles take up the slack for the lack of ligamentous stability. The other method is that scar tissue is built up and the muscles are also strengthened.
Regardless neither of these actually heal the tissue of the ligament, they merely control the symptom of instability. That’s why when Pat Neshek attempted his rehab, I knew it wouldn’t last and he would require surgery. Same with Liriano. Same with every other pitcher.
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SP, injury analysis, news
Elbow, Ervin Santana, SP, Sprain, Tommy John
Oswalt has been getting some press lately about still being an ace. One wonders if injuries have begun to take their toll on him.He’s been on the DL 5 times since 2003 with 4 times being to the hip/groin area. The 31 year old made 32 starts last year mixing 4 pitches fairly well together while throwing almost 209 innings.
The results were good by all accounts posting a 3.54 ERA and 1.179 WHIP while striking out 165. According to baseball-reference.com, his *ERA+ which measures how his ERA compares to the league ERA, was the lowest of his career at 120. He has only been down in the 120’s one other time, 2004, when he posted a 125 ERA+. The last 3 years his ERA+ dropped from 149 to 138 and down to 120 last year.
He throws 4 pitches: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. He throws the curve slightly more than the slider, but much more when he is ahead or with 2 strikes. Overall I think that PFx data will show how he’s really not quite into decline yet and should be targeted in fantasy leagues everywhere.
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Pitch FX, SP
PFx, Profile, Roy Oswalt, SP
News out of Minnesota is that Bonser had tears in both his labrum and rotator cuff which was repaired during surgery yesterday. They say it’s a 6-8 month process publicly but for all intensive purposes it means the season. Having tears in both the labrum and rotator cuff is an extreme injury for a pitcher.
Knowing what the injuries are, I want to go back in time and see if there were any significant signs from PFx.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Boof Bonser, PFx, Pitch FX, Profile, SP
Kevin Slowey has been getting a lot of press about being a sleeper this year. Because of this, looking at the scouting reports and the PFx profile could be more than beneficial to see if this sleeper focus is warranted or not.
Slowey throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider. He strikes guys out at close to a 7-K/9 clip while walking next to no one coming in under 1.4 BB/9. His command is absolutely impeccable with a 5.1 K/BB ratio and a 1.15 WHIP so he’s not going to get himself into trouble too often. Not everything is picture perfect though. He’s primarily a FB pitcher coming in around 45% and his GB% is only 36% but he has been able to control his HR/FB% to 10%.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP
Kevin Slowey, PFx, Pitch FX, Profile, SP
I looked into the Beckett explanation a little more because I had some comments that it was counter intuitive. How can a pitch go slower but have more backspin/ resist gravity more. I could only explain it that he threw the pitches at a different trajectory.
Using Dan Fox’s method of showing trajectories (subscription required), I was able to show Beckett’s average trajectories pre June 15th and post June 15th.
Fastball
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Josh Beckett, PFx, Pitch FX, SP
Reviewing the comments, it was suggested that I do a comparison of a good profile versus a bad profile. It was a difficult challenge for several reasons including but not limited to: finding pitchers of roughly equal talent, finding a pitcher who was unhealthy, and finding a pitcher who stayed healthy.
After looking though several pitchers, I think the best comparison would be Halladay versus Beckett. They both pitch in the AL East, they are both power pitchers, Beckett was injured towards the end of last year while Halladay stayed healthy. For comparison sake, I will only display the similar type pitches and I will always list Beckett first.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Josh Beckett, PFx, Roy Halladay, SP
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