Everyone is talking about value these days gearing up to their drafts. What round is a good value for player X? What price should I throw out for player Y? I always factor in a player’s value when drafting. This is the only way you can build a good team year in and year out. Real value is what the player actually provides your team. There are many different ways of measuring including standing gain points method (SGP) and the percentage method (PVM) as well.
The SGP method converts a player’s contribution in every category into the number of points those stats will allow you to gain in the standings. Adding up a player’s contribution in each category gives you his full SGP value. The thought behind PVM is simple — a player is awarded a value in direct proportion to the level he contributes to each category. The individual category values are then summed to yield a total value. If a player contributes 2.1 percent of the total homers, then he earned 2.1 percent of the money assigned to homers.
In every league there are a couple of owners who either draft out of a magazine they picked up that morning or that print out a top list and go with the “best available”. A couple of years ago one of my fellow league mates did that and ended up drafting Victor Martinez around 14th overall.
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Strategy
Strategy, Value
Now that we’ve finally started to get into some games, we can really start paying attention to what injury situations will really effect us in fantasy baseball this year.
Starting off with Jorge Posada’s shoulder, he’s already been hitting in games hitting a Home Run yesterday. This is a great sign in the rehab of his right shoulder surgery. As a hitter, the front shoulder is the power shoulder. Any injury to this area would likely sap the power. Since the right shoulder is the power shoulder for a left handed hitter, it’s no question that it effected Posada’s power last year before the surgery. By him hitting the home run, it points to me that his shoulder is completely healthy from a hitting point of view. It also means he’s on track to return. The next step to watch for is when he’s cleared to begin catching in games again. If everything goes well, I can easily see him returning to full power and being in the top 2 tiers of catchers this year.
Moving on to Albert Pujols’ elbow, we should still monitor how they handle him. Luckily he didn’t need the Tommy John surgery, instead requiring decompression of the ulnar nerve and moving it to a less stressful position. There are very good results coming back from this surgery so as long as there are no setbacks, I fully expect him to turn in his typical Pujols’ like season. Therefore, if for some reason he’s dropping in your draft, don’t worry and just laugh at your fellow owners.
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Strategy, injury analysis
Injuries
News out of Minnesota is that Bonser had tears in both his labrum and rotator cuff which was repaired during surgery yesterday. They say it’s a 6-8 month process publicly but for all intensive purposes it means the season. Having tears in both the labrum and rotator cuff is an extreme injury for a pitcher.
Knowing what the injuries are, I want to go back in time and see if there were any significant signs from PFx.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Boof Bonser, PFx, Pitch FX, Profile, SP
Kevin Slowey has been getting a lot of press about being a sleeper this year. Because of this, looking at the scouting reports and the PFx profile could be more than beneficial to see if this sleeper focus is warranted or not.
Slowey throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider. He strikes guys out at close to a 7-K/9 clip while walking next to no one coming in under 1.4 BB/9. His command is absolutely impeccable with a 5.1 K/BB ratio and a 1.15 WHIP so he’s not going to get himself into trouble too often. Not everything is picture perfect though. He’s primarily a FB pitcher coming in around 45% and his GB% is only 36% but he has been able to control his HR/FB% to 10%.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP
Kevin Slowey, PFx, Pitch FX, Profile, SP
Vernon Wells will likely be out roughly a month according to the Blue Jays after straining his left hamstring yesterday. Obviously, this will set him back in his preparation for the season. This is also worrisome in that he was on the DL in the middle of last season with the same issue. He missed a month then and now he’s going to miss another month now.
When you have multiple injuries in a muscle group, no matter how good the care is, some scar tissue will build up. Scar tissue will change the dynamics of the muscular contraction and flexibility and thus make them more prone to future injuries.
The only thing going for Wells is that the season starts later due to the WBC. I doubt he will miss any of the season, but this will be something we should monitor throughout the spring.
injury analysis, news
Injury, Injury News, Vernon Wells
A couple of times a year you hear about how pitcher X is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is throwing at such-and-such distance. By know you know the general guidelines, a pitcher returns 9-12 months, but if it’s early on and he’s supposedly throwing darts, picking him up late in the year might be enough to help you down the stretch drive.
I’m going to share some common post-op guidelines for Tommy John surgery so that you know where the pitcher is and when you can reasonably expect a pitcher to return. If you are looking for exercise recommendation, I must advise you to seek the council of your surgeon or therapist. These are guidelines for fantasy baseball research purposes only.
Immediate Post-Op – 2 weeks Read more…
injury analysis
protocol, Tommy John
I looked into the Beckett explanation a little more because I had some comments that it was counter intuitive. How can a pitch go slower but have more backspin/ resist gravity more. I could only explain it that he threw the pitches at a different trajectory.
Using Dan Fox’s method of showing trajectories (subscription required), I was able to show Beckett’s average trajectories pre June 15th and post June 15th.
Fastball
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Josh Beckett, PFx, Pitch FX, SP
Reviewing the comments, it was suggested that I do a comparison of a good profile versus a bad profile. It was a difficult challenge for several reasons including but not limited to: finding pitchers of roughly equal talent, finding a pitcher who was unhealthy, and finding a pitcher who stayed healthy.
After looking though several pitchers, I think the best comparison would be Halladay versus Beckett. They both pitch in the AL East, they are both power pitchers, Beckett was injured towards the end of last year while Halladay stayed healthy. For comparison sake, I will only display the similar type pitches and I will always list Beckett first.
End Speed
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Pitch FX, SP, injury analysis
Josh Beckett, PFx, Roy Halladay, SP
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