In lieu of specific recommendations today, I want to focus on general 2nd half strategies. Here are a few main ones:
- Your rate stats are not going to move much from here on out. For typical roto leagues, BA, OBP, ERA, WHIP are all unlikely to move very far because of the sheer amount of volume that has already been played. Therefore, points are going to be very hard to come by unless there is one big bunch that is already there. The only way for you to make a big jump in one of these categories is if a leader gets someone who suffers in one of these areas and you get someone who excels. Therefore, be careful when trading for points in one of these categories.
- Counting stats on the other hand are going to move. This is where you can make up a lot of ground in all of those counting categories. If you are dead last in OBP, instead of trying to trade for a better OBP, trade one of your high OBP guys (Youkilis) for someone who gets a lot of counting stats (Crawford). This will maximize your stats and give you a fighting chance.
- We are at the point in the season where a 6-8 week injury basically means the season. Do not hold onto the player and suck up a bench spot. Replace them because even when they get back they are less likely to be productive than before.
- When buying low or selling high from here on out it’s important to note that we’re at the point where we an start to believe the player is what he is producing. Even though Cliff Lee insanely lucky this year so far, that may just continue. Keep that in your mind when trading and even when listening to my recommendations.
- Finally, if you are in a keeper league, be on the lookout for sellers or buyers. For instance, if you have a Matt LaPorta or someone of that caliber, you can sell high on them for this year and maybe help you team win this year. That last place team may want to pack it in and it’s up to you to scavenge the good pieces from the team.
Those are some general strategies that you need to think about from this point forward. Thanks for everyone who has read my articles so far and tomorrow the normal posts will begin again.
Strategy
Buy Low: Jonathan Sanchez
Key Stats:
Buy Low/ Sell High, SP
Buy Low: Jorge Cantu
Key Stats:
1B, Buy Low/ Sell High, OF
Just wanted to let you know about my injury analysis post at Fighting Chance Fantasy.
Starting tomorrow, I should be getting the normal updates again. Thanks for understanding.
Fighting Chance Fantasy
Weekend Edition: I have family in town this weekend so I won’t be able to provide updates on Saturday and Sunday. I will provide a weekend edition though.
Buy Low: A.J. Burnett
Key Stats:
Read more…
Buy Low/ Sell High, RP, SP
Cincinnati’s been searching for a reason behind the struggles of Harang over the year after having such high expectations for him coming into this year. After his latest start, he was examined and was given a preliminary diagnosis of a tight forearm. This is concerning to me because of what I have seen in my experience. During my experience, elbow problems, especially chronic Ulnar Collateral ligament injuries lead to control problems but not necessarily velocity. This has also been discussed by a authors who’s opinion I trust, Will Carroll (sorry subscription required but well worth it) being the one that I read most. With this in mind, I wanted to look at the PFX data to see if it backed it up.
First and foremost I wanted to see what the release point was for all of his starts. At first I isolated only his home starts to be as consistent as possible and see if it was a long running problem. That gave me the lines that gave me the “central” location of his average release point.
I used the median as the reference because if we use the mean, the position would be effected by outliers. The one thing you can notice right away is how inconsistent he was with his release point. Lately the last month or two, he has been right at the line or below it. This would possibly indicate a drop in the arm slot, but we can’t be absolutely sure. The side to side motion is somewhat effected by where the player is on the rubber, so we have to take this with a slight grain of salt.
Read more…
SP, injury analysis, news
Sorry for not having consistency in my postings int he morning. Been a very busy week and the refrigerator died this week, so I’ve had to run around in the mornings and nights. Hopefully after this weekend, it will be a lot more consistent and I’ll be able to get more PFX work up.
Buy Low: Dave Bush
Key Stats:
Read more…
Buy Low/ Sell High, SP
Mark Mulder has been diagnosed with a strain after only 16 pitches last night. He hasn’t been able to pitch effectively since 2005 and given the history of 2 rotator cuff surgeries, this is not good. He said that he felt severe pain with it which was pretty evident as he grimaced on the last pitch. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to be shut down until late August at the earliest.
injury analysis, news
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