Watching baseball tonight reminded me of C.C. Sabathia and how good he was last year and how horrible he was this year until the last few games.
My belief is that release point is usually critical to a pitcher’s success or failure. Major league hitters are freaks of nature in terms of eyesight, recognition, and reaction to pitches thrown at you close to 100MPH at times. Pitch F/X data thankfully has begun to fill the void that was missing from staticians, scouts, managers, pitching coaches, GMs, and even the players themselves.
I decided to take a look at Sabathia and his release points so far this year. Below are closeups of his 6 starts:
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Baseball Prospectus, Pitch FX
Clay seems to have finally begun to settle into his own. In previous posts, I mentioned how dominating he was in his last start. I had to learn more about the reasoning behind this other than the usual claims of “he was on top of his game, he had electric stuff, etc”. I decided to use his Pitch F/X data on his release point as a starting point to this.
Below are the release point charts of his last 3 starts. In order they are 4/16 vs NY, 4/21 vs Tex, and 4/26 vs TB.
By looking quickly at this, it appears that vs NY, he was releasing the ball further away from his body which would give the hitters a better look as it leaves his hand. Professional baseball players find this difference of 2-3 inches astronomical as well as having a harder time controlling his pitches. His next start was closer to his body, close to a full foot, but his release point was erratic. This may be one of those times that he was lucky to get away with it. Finally vs TB his release point seemed to centralize to one area which was closer to the body than vs NY.
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Pitch FX
There’s been a lot of news for your fantasy team so with that we’ll get right to it.
- Clay Buchholz was masterful for the whole game against the TB Rays except for one pitch, which of course caused him to get the loss. He finished with 8IP, 3H, 2ER, 9K and 2BB. This follows his last start with 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 6K, and 2BB. He’s sports a 8.47 K/9 and really has only had the 1 horrible start versus the Yankees giving up 7ER on 9 baserunners. In his other 4 starts, he has gone 25 IP, 18H, 6ER, 9BB, and 25K. He seems to be settling into his own and he is now owned in 84% of CBS leagues. If you are in the other 16%, grab him quickly before someone else does.
- Carlos Delgado is struggling mightily, despite hitting a HR recently. He’s hitting under the Mendoza Line while only hitting 1 HR on the entire year. Buster Olney from ESPN ponders whether he will be designated for assignment. At the very least he is losing a lot of playing time due to his struggles. He is going to be 36 years old has always had old player skills and is at the age where whatever skills you do have begin to deteriorate rapidly. Expect a slight recovery in his numbers, but those days of an automatic 30HR and 100RBI are long gone.
- Jorge Posada is likely going to end up on the DL because of his shoulder after re-injuring it in the game on Saturday against the Indians. It’s reported he has a subscapularis tear which is not a good thing for any player, let alone an aging catcher. The subscapularis is part of the rotator cuff, which if surgery is required would necessitate a long rehab, probably close to the entire year. Unfortunately I have him in my main league, but thankfully I was able to get Pierzynski off the waiver wire to back him up. Bench Posada and hide him if you can until a surgical decision is made. If surgery occurs, dump him. If not, then hold onto him only if you have many bench spots.
- Max Scherzer has been called up with Petit sent down. He has been absolutely lights out at AAA sporting 1.17ERA in 4 starts with a 38/3 K/BB ratio in 23IP. He may spend time in the bullpen at first, however you don’t find many pitchers with his K potential very often on the waiver wire. He’ll likely only get a few starts at best immediately, but those in keeper leagues should pay a lot of attention to him. Currently owned in 21% of CBS leagues, he’s currently only worth a flyer in NL-only leagues. Once it’s determined the length of time he’ll be in the majors, I would then look at him for mixed-leagues,especially if your league counts K or K/9. You won’t find very any others who can help you in these categories like he can, but currently it is only promise.
Strategy, injury analysis
I’ll come out and say it right now, something is not right with Liriano. That may be categorized under the “so simple it’s stupid” rule, but I think that everyone must try to imagine and realize what’s going on here and what are the possibilities behind his continued struggles.
- The surgery just didn’t “work”. There is a surprising number of players who never return to their former levels after Tommy John surgery. I say surprising only because it’s been ingrained in our heads from the collective media that TJ surgery is routine. Any ligament replacement surgery in an elite athlete during his/her career is anything but routine. From the estimates I’ve read, between 15-20% of athletes never return to their previous level after TJ surgery. Could Liriano be one of those? By all accounts, he is 100% healthy so I guess tie will tell if this is the truth or not.
- The surgery “worked” but he’s not fully physically recovered. This situation involves having the MDs declare him healthy to pitch but he needs to take several games or several months before his arm and release points have the proper timing and strength. Consider this Liriano “playing himself into game-shape”. This is a distinct possibility because he was not able to go deep in games, especially in spring training, due to his lack of command which is at an appalling 13BB in 10.3 IP. His WHIP is an astronomical 2.71. It’s hard to imagine his numbers doing anything but going down.
- The surgery was a success, he is physically 100%, but mentally he’s not recovered. This may be one of the worst things to happen. Many elite athletes like to see results and will associate anything (either positive or negative) as a direct cause of that result. I cannot provide a full complete insight into his psyche but hopefully I’ll be able to help you understand his possible mental state right now.
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injury analysis, news
With the news that Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera switching position fantasy players everywhere are weighing their options regarding what to do and how to value these players. Some so called experts feel that this move does nothing for your fantasy team, I beg to differ and could not possibly disagree more. I am a fir believer in position flexibility and having this is key.
Miguel Cabrera is one of the top hitters in the game no matter what position her plays in the field. Having position flexibility is a key component of championship teas, expecially when the flexibility is in your best hitter. Cabrera now has or will have very soon eligibility at 1b. If you are one of those luck owners to get him in the first or second (I can’t imagine how) round, then you have got to be very pleased to have someone who you can slot in at 1b, 3b, or Util. Imagine the production if Ortiz played several games at 1b and 3b in the beginning of the year and you now have Miggy C.
Unfortunately, Miggy has to move to a new position this year and not last year. That means that there is an increased chance of injury that Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus as explained about as well as anyone I have ever heard. You can read this more about this here. So, will Miggy “produce” more? Probably not. Are you going to reap the benefits of this move, absolutely. It’s a question of degree.
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Advanced Statistic Analysis, Baseball Prospectus, Strategy
I like everyone enjoy the beginning of the season but find it maddening when I hear about how people are on pace for 175 HR or 40 Wins as a SP or even quote how someone is hitting .125 after 4 games. These numbers are irrelevant and are only there to grab your attention and give you little to no real analysis of how good the players actually is or likely to keep reproducing those stats.
It has been shown that you need at least 45 games before the statistics can be shown to have any sort of statistical significant pattern. In other words, anything up to about 45 games has to be viewed with reservation as it may be due to random chance. So what does this mean? Basically if you plan on picking a player up right now and keeping them for the long term you have to look at the numbers as well as other things such as track records, pure stuff, and/or the proper mental makeup. It has also been said that once you display a skill, you own it.
For this reason I think that one should look at Homer Bailey, Francisco Liriano, and Jacoby Ellsbury. These guys have had varying degrees of success lately but they have one thing in common. They are all undervalued.
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Strategy
In order for everyone to understand where/how I base my opinions and advice on, I want to clarify my background.
I majored in Athletic Training and have worked as an Athletic Trainer for over 8 years now at the DI and DIII level. I have a great amount of experience in baseball and its injuries, so much so that my thesis was pitching injuries and rehabilitation. So as you can imagine, I always take a longer look at analysis that includes injuries and technological improvements in sports medicine. Two people in particular have shaped my interest in injury analysis, namely Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus and Rick Wilton from Baseball-Injury-Report.com. I will like to take their amazing coverage and analysis a little further with analysis of Pitch F/X data, disabled list information, and statistical analysis.
From a fantasy baseball perspective, I have been playing for over 10 years in extremely competitive leagues. The most competitive league I am in is a 12 team 6×6 league with OBP instead of Avg. and IP as the extra pitching category. We have a Games Started cap to make things a little more interesting as the year goes on and forces owners to start pitchers responsibly and not just picking up anyone who will be throwing in a given day.
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Uncategorized
First I apologize for not writing as many posts as I have hoped when I first began. My career as an athletic trainer for a DIII college in the Northeast means that no schedule is ever concrete. So after many 60 hour weeks in a row, on to address some of my main goals with my writing.
My main goal is to help provide information about this wonderful and beautiful game we call baseball and provide advice and insight into applying it to fantasy baseball. My understanding of the game, both as an ex-player and as a clinician dealing with baseball players everyday, allows me very unique perspective. I want to look at strategical aspects and technological advances that help everyone understand the game and especially it’s injury/health implications. And finally and probably most importantly, I want to have fun.
With that I hope everyone enjoys the reading.
Uncategorized
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