Well here it is finally playoff time and I wanted to look at how I did at the end of the year. I created a spreadsheet here for everyone to see and compare different scenarios.
Looking at everything, I did win basically every category that the player can control. FIP – ERA for pitchers have a swing of close to 4 tenths of a point in ERA. The WHIP is better by close to .06 and more than 1K/9 better in the buy group. My pitchers also gave up less HR and had a higher average gamescore.
The hitters have a slightly worse HR/AB but everything else is better even nominally so.
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BL/SH Summary
Been a while for the updates so here we go:
BL/SH Summary
After following my numbers for a while now (roughly a couple months) I’m really starting to see the results of my picks. There may be a little confusion as to what exactly I consider “buying low” and “selling high” so I want to review my methods, purpose, and what exactly you’ll find here before I go on to the summaries.
Some people question my methods about what buying low or selling high is, so far I only know of The True Gurus Show, but my methods are sound and based on fact not opinion. First, I evaluate the hitters or pitchers using statistics that they have control of and also ones that show whether or not someone is lucky or likely to regress. Knowing someone’s RBIs or Runs are important as they are the basis for most leagues but you can find that information anywhere and more importantly it’s hard to tell whether or not they will perform better or worse over the last part of the year based on these stats. For instance, take away 1 game and Delgado has 9 RBIs less but it makes his overall stats look a lot better even if you were drawing them out on a per game basis. Plus, no one can predict these types of performances so therefore I don’t focus on these. I focus on whether that player with play better or worse from this point forward and what you can potentially trade for him. I may say to buy low on someone who is having a good year, but that’s because the stats show he can improve and maybe someone in your league doesn’t believe he’ll keep it up. The other fantasy owner may view his production as lucky and you can maybe get him for cheaper than if the owner knew he could keep it up.
Next I give my explanation based on baselines or guidelines that others have noted to be effective and accurate. And finally, I always provide 3 or more actual trades that occurred in real mixed leagues that occurred within a few days of the posting. Please note the emphasis that these trades actually occur so this is the most up-to-date value that people are paying for or buying for. This is real world evidence of what the players’ current value is. Will it be 100% accurate in everyone’s league, no and that’s not my goal. I try to provide everyone a rough idea of what someone’s value is at that time, whether or not I feel that their performance will improve or begin to drop off, and let that fantasy owner make a decision.
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BL/SH Summary
My bi-weekly High/Low summary provided me with some surprises about the numbers.
First the Hitters:
BL/SH Summary
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